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The Hot Hand, aka The Lukewarm Hand, aka LeSimulation

The "hot hand" does not exist for field goal attempts in NBA basketball (it may exist for free throws). In fact, NBA players are significantly less streaky than they should be. After extensive analysis and simulation, I determined this is mostly due to shot selection. For NBA players, their shooting percentage by type of shot doesn't change much based on how well they've been shooting lately -- there is definitely no hot hand in that sense. A player who has made 4 or 5 out of the last 5 shots isn't significantly more likely than average to make the next one, controlling for shot difficulty. It might seem that way to the sports fan, or the athlete, but it's just not true on NBA basketball.

FG% by type of shot doesn't change, but shot selection does -- on average, NBA players take higher percentage shots when they've been shooting poorly recently (they go get a bucket), and lower percentage shots when they're shooting well (they take a heat check). These heat check shots tend to be more inefficient shots as well (lower expected value), so this behavior definitely costs teams points, and possibly wins.

Key Takeway

The real world is far more streaky than our brains are equipped to deal with. Players believe they have the hot hand, which causes them to be less streaky than they would be otherwise. Yet NBA players still seem streaky to people who watch basketball, myself included, even though they're actually less streaky than they should be. Our brains attach far too much meaning to streaks, and are really bad at intuitively understanding randomness.